外汇储备规模与多元变量弹性系数的实证研究

中国外汇储备近几年的迅速增长引发了关于中国外汇储备规模是否适度的广泛讨论。本文从需求的角度,运用计量经济学的多元线性回归的方法,建立中国外汇储备与平均进口倾向、进口和国际收支三变量的双对数模型,通过计算并通过相关检验得到外汇储备与相关变量的弹性系数。为预测和制定相关政策提供依据。

Positive Study on the Elasticity of Foreign Exchange Reserve to Multiple Variables

The fact that foreign exchangen reserve of China rapidly increased in recent years has attracted public attention and cause to argue whether its scale is appropriate,In the perspective of demand,the paper applies the multiple regression to double-log model in which the foreign exchange reserve is dependent variable and average propensity to import,importand international payment are independent variables.We can get the elasticity of foreign exchange reserve to the three independent variables by calculation and test that will help us to make relative policies.