| 霍尔特-温特模型在货运量季节性预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 童明荣,薛恒新.霍尔特-温特模型在货运量季节性预测中的应用[J].数理统计与管理,2008,27(3):500-504. |
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| 作者姓名： | 童明荣 薛恒新 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京理工大学经济管理学院,南京,210094 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划) |
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| 摘 要： | 为了提高货运量季节性预测的精度,应用了一种线性季节预测模型,霍尔特-温特模型。通过傅立叶周期分析确定季节影响和周期长度,利用迭代法寻找模型最优参数。将预测结果与其他三个常用季节预测模型:分组回归模型、可变季节预测模型和季节周期回归模型进行比较,结果表明霍尔特-温特模型预测精度最高。
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| 关 键 词： | 货运量 霍尔特-温特模型 预测 季节性 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-1566(2008)03-0500-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年9月20日 |
The Application of the Holt-Winter Model in Seasonal Freight Transport Volume |
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| TONG Ming-rong,XUE Heng-xin.The Application of the Holt-Winter Model in Seasonal Freight Transport Volume[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2008,27(3):500-504. |
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| Authors: | TONG Ming-rong XUE Heng-xin |
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| Abstract: | In order to improve the accuracy of forecasting the seasonal railway freight transport volume, the Holt-Winter forecasting model is adopted.The seasonal factor is confirmed by the Fourier period analysis method,the optimization parameters are searched by an iterative method.Compared with the three normal seasonal forecasting models those are group regression model,variable seasonal model and seasonal regression model,Holt-Winter model has the best accuracy in forecasting. |
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| Keywords: | freight transport volume Holt-Winter model seasonal forecasting |
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