盈余管理计量模型效力的实证研究

本文以随机抽取的上海和深圳证券交易所的1000家被并购上市公司为样本,研究了盈余管理计量模型的检验效力问题。本文通过三种验证各模型效力的实证方法比较了6种盈余管理的计量模型。研究发现:第一类误差的方法认为Healy模型、修正的琼斯模型和前瞻性修正的琼斯模型能有效地检验出盈余管理行为:预测误差标准方法则认为前瞻性修正的琼斯模型是最优的模型:而根据对操纵性应计部分的短期效应的实证则认为Healy模型、修正的琼斯模型、KS模型和前瞻性修正的琼斯模型是较优的计量模型。在综合考虑各种实证结果和中国资本市场实际情况的基础上,认为前瞻性修正的琼斯模型在中国证券市场检验盈余管理行为的效力最强。

Empirical Study on the Ability of Econometric Model on Earnings Management

This paper concentrates on the detection ability of econometric model on earnings management,based on the random selection of 1000 merged listed company in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange as sample.Three positive approaches are conducted in testing the detection ability of six models.After empirical study,we find: the method of type I error deems that Healy Model,Modified Jones Model and Forward-looking Modified Jones Model can examine the earnings management effectively;The standard of forecast error believes that Forward-looking Modified Jones Model is most optimal;and the means of short-term effect of discretionary accruals considers Healy Model,Modified Jones Model,KS Model and Forward-looking Modified Jones Model are the best.Taken all the results and real situation of China capital market into account,Forward-looking Modified Jones Model is most effective in detecting the earnings management in China securities market.