| 证券分析师业绩预测和投资评级准确性实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄静,董秀良.证券分析师业绩预测和投资评级准确性实证分析[J].数理统计与管理,2006,25(6):742-749. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄静 董秀良 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 吉林大学数量经济研究中心,长春
2. 华侨大学经济管理学院,泉州 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文以国内证券分析师业的业绩预测和投资评级为研究对象,从投资评级的准确性、投资建议赢利性、业绩预测误差及其来源等几个方面进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,证券分析师的投资建议无论是在短期还是中长期均不能产生显著的超额收益,业绩预测误差是导致投资评级失误的原因之一,而业绩预测误差主要源于分析师对公司层面信息的错误判断。
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| 关 键 词： | 行为金融 证券分析师 预测误差 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-1566(2006)06-0742-08 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-11-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年11月5日 |
The Empirical Study on the Security Analysts'ability of Stock Recommendation and Earnings Forecasts |
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| HUANG Jing,DONG Xiu-Liang.The Empirical Study on the Security Analysts''''ability of Stock Recommendation and Earnings Forecasts[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2006,25(6):742-749. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Jing DONG Xiu-Liang |
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| Institution: | 1. Center for Quantitative Economic of JiLin Univorsity. Changchun China; 2. Business School of HuaQiao University, Quanzhou |
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| Abstract: | This paper aims to assess the performance of trading strategies based on the investment recommendations(Trading ideas)made by security analyst,who regularly publishes stock recommendation and earnings forecasts.This paper seeks to describe the investment recommendations,earning forecast error and the source of the error.Our results suggest that these trading ideas have not been useful for stock selection.A decomposition of the errors suggests that the errors are largely random and based on an inability of security analysts to predict at firm,rather than industry and economy level. |
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| Keywords: | behavioral finance security analysts forecast error |
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