FDI、经济增长与金融发展双门槛效应——基于我国1992-2012年省际面板数据

FDI对经济增长是否总是起到正面推进作用?进一步,该作用的发挥在多大程度上依赖于当地的金融发展水平?这是我国当前修订对外开放政策框架前所必须要考虑的问题。本文使用Hansen非动态面板门槛回归模型、采用我国1992-2012年省际面板数据对FDI对经济增长作用的金融发展门槛进行了实证分析。研究发现,与一般认为的FDI总能促进地区经济增长的观点不同,FDI对经济增长的作用具有明显的金融发展门槛效应,而且是双重门槛:当金融发展水平低于低门槛时,FDI对地区经济会有抑制作用;在高低门槛之间,FDI对经济增长会有比较显著的促进作用;高于高门槛时,FDI对地区经济的促进作用将逐步回落;金融发展双重门槛的存在使得FDI对经济增长的作用整体呈现倒U型。论文最后据此提出应根据地区金融发展程度实行差异性政策等相关的政策建议。

FDI,Growth, and Dual-threshold Effect of Financial Development

Does FDI always promote local growth? To what extent does the effect depend on local financial development (FD)? These questions need to be answered when we re-consider China's open-up policy framework now.Using China's provincial panel data from 1992 through 2012,and non-dynamic threshold panel regression model,in this paper we analyze the FD threshold effects of FDI over economic growth,The empirical results show that there exist significant dual thresholds of FD,which makes the role of FDI on economy an inverted U shape.When the FD level is beneath the lower-threshold,FDI shows an inhibiting effect on local economy;when the FD level is between upper-and lower-thresholds,FDI promotes local growth drastically;however,when the FD level is beyond the upper-threshold,the promoting effect of FDI drops down gradually.Based on these results,we give suggestions such as introducing differentiating FDI policies to catch the different characteristics of FD in different areas of China.