儿童伤害住院费用ARIMA预测模型研究

目的拟合适合儿童伤害住院费用时间序列资料的预测模型。方法采用ARIMA模型对住院费用进行模型拟合。结果模型拟合得到的最优模型为ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)2×(0,1,1)12模型,该模型预测2005年的平均住院费将为2849.7元,2006年的平均住院费将达到3117.7元。结论ARIMA模型适用于儿童伤害住院费用时间序列模型拟合以及费用预测,预测结果显示在没有外来干预因素影响的情况下,儿童因伤害住院的住院费用将会延续2004年以前的上升趋势持续上涨。

Forecasting the Hospitalization Expenses of Injury Children with the ARIMA Model

Objective: Fit the forcast model that suit to the time series data of the Hospitalization Expenses of Injury Children.Method: Useing the ARIMA Model to fit in with the change of hospitalization expenses.Result: The established best model is ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)2×(0,1,1)12.The average Hospitalization Expenses of 2005 and 2006 were forecasted by this model,and that will be 2849.7 Yuan and 3117.7 Yuan each case separately.Conclusion The model of ARIMA is applicable to fitting and forecasting the time series of child injury hospitalization expenses.The estimate result shows that if do not consider the effect of external factors,the hospitalization expenses of injury children will keep increase which following the trend of time before 2004.