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对全国法定传染病发病率趋势进行预测
引用本文:郭秀花,鲍卫华,罗艳侠,周诗国.对全国法定传染病发病率趋势进行预测[J].数理统计与管理,2004,23(5):63-67.
作者姓名:郭秀花  鲍卫华  罗艳侠  周诗国
作者单位:北京军医学院数学教研室
摘    要:目的 研究全国法定传染病的发病规律和趋势。方法 对于1990———2001年资料完整的20种传染病,借助MATLAB6 1版本数学软件编程,建立灰色系统G(1,1)模型,并进行外推3年预测。结果 后验差比值C和小误差概率P综合模型检验,20个模型等级结果是:9个1级、8个2级、3个3级。结论 通过模型进行分析,除淋病、布氏杆菌病、斑疹伤寒3种近期未来发病率将上升外,其余17种发病率近期未来将下降。

关 键 词:法定传染病  发病率  灰色动态模型
文章编号:1002-1566(2004)05-0063-05
修稿时间:2002年12月20

Forecasting the incidences of legal infections in our country
GUO Xiu-hua,BAO Wei-hua,LUO Yan-xia,ZHOU Guo-shi.Forecasting the incidences of legal infections in our country[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2004,23(5):63-67.
Authors:GUO Xiu-hua  BAO Wei-hua  LUO Yan-xia  ZHOU Guo-shi
Institution:Mathematical Department of Beijing Military Medical College.100071.china
Abstract:Objective:To Predict the epidemic strength and tendency for legal infections in our country.Methods:The G(1,1) modes of Grey system were set up with MATLAB 61 mathematical software according to the data of 20 legal infections from 1990 to 2001. The incidences of 3 years in the futrue were predicted . Results:Posteriori error ratio C and small error probability P were analyzed comprehensively. Model tests in 20 infections were obtained with 9 first grade, 8 second grade and 3 third grade. Conclusions:17 legal infections will fall tendency in the near future except gonorrhea, brucellosis and typhus by analysis of the G(1,1) modes of Grey system.
Keywords:legal infection incidenceGrey dynamic model
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