| ARIMA乘积季节模型及其在传染病发病预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 彭志行,鲍昌俊,赵杨,易洪刚,唐少文,于浩,陈峰.ARIMA乘积季节模型及其在传染病发病预测中的应用[J].数理统计与管理,2008,27(2):362-368. |
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| 作者姓名： | 彭志行 鲍昌俊 赵杨 易洪刚 唐少文 于浩 陈峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京医科大学流行病与卫生统计系,南京,210029
2. 江苏省疾病预防控制中心,南京,210009 |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏省社会发展基金
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江苏省卫生厅科研项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文研究乘积季节模型在传染病发病情况预测中的应用,并探讨提高模型准确性和实用性的途径.以1980年1月至2000年7月江苏省肾综合征出血热发病资料建立模型,以2000年的发病资料作为模型预测效果的考核样本.首先采用差分方法对序列资料进行平稳化,然后进行定阶并估计参数,建立乘积季节模型,最后对预测结果进行检验和分析.从而更好地掌握未来疫情动态发展趋势.检验结果表明,用乘积季节模型对肾综合征出血热月发病情况的拟合结果满意,预测效果良好.
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列 ARIMA模型 乘积季节模型 传染病 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-1566(2008)02-0362-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年1月20日 |
ARIMA Product Season Model and its Application on Forecasting in Incidence of Infectious Disease |
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| PENG Zhi-hang,BAO Chang-jun,ZHAO Yang,YI Hong-gang,TANG Shao-wen,YU Hao,CHEN Feng.ARIMA Product Season Model and its Application on Forecasting in Incidence of Infectious Disease[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2008,27(2):362-368. |
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| Authors: | PENG Zhi-hang BAO Chang-jun ZHAO Yang YI Hong-gang TANG Shao-wen YU Hao CHEN Feng |
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| Abstract: | To research the application of ARIMA product season model forecasting in infectious disease incidence,and discuss the method to improve its veracity and practicability.Model was fitted by the historical data of HFRs of Jiangsu Province.Firstly,used the difference method to make the data sequence become placid.Secondly,parameters of model is estimated and set up a product season model by decide the rank of it.Finally,the paper tests the result of forecast and analysis it.So we can predominate the trends of epidemic situation better than before.It is practical to apply the approach of ARIMA product season model to predict HFRs in Jiangsu Province by test. |
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| Keywords: | time series ARIMA model product seasonal model infectious disease forecasting |
| 本文献已被 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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