| 干预ARIMA模型及其在我国人口总量预测中的实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 田金方,张小斐.干预ARIMA模型及其在我国人口总量预测中的实证研究[J].数理统计与管理,2007,26(2):263-267. |
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| 作者姓名： | 田金方 张小斐 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东经济学院,济南,250014 |
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| 基金项目： | 山东经济学院校科研和教改项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用干预时序模型方法简明扼要地对我国建国以来的人口发展趋势建立了动态模型,并预测了未来几年我国人口发展的趋势。结果表明,此模型很好地解释了我国人口发展的动态结构,为促进我国人口政策的调整与扩展提供了很好的参考依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 干预分析 ARIMA方法 自相关函数 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-1566（2007）02-0263-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-09-23 |
Intervention ARIMA Model and Its Positive Research in Our Country's Population Forecasting |
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| TIAN Jin-fang,ZHANG Xiao-fei.Intervention ARIMA Model and Its Positive Research in Our Country''''s Population Forecasting[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2007,26(2):263-267. |
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| Authors: | TIAN Jin-fang ZHANG Xiao-fei |
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| Institution: | Shandong Econoomic University |
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| Abstract: | The concise dynamic model of population since the foundation of our state is done by means of intervention and time series method;at the same time this model makes forecasting of people's development trend in the following several years.The result has shown that the model can well explain the dynamic structure model which population developed and can be regarded as a reference for the farther adjustment and expansion of our country's population policy. |
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| Keywords: | intervention ARIMA autocorrelation function |
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