中国房地产投资与国民经济关系结构变点研究

本文首先描述了房地产投资与GDP间关系在以2001、2008年为分界点的三个时期上的不同特征;其次用变结构协整模型侦测协整关系的结构变点;再次利用分段协整检验、邹氏断点检验和格兰杰因果检验对变点做进一步验证。结论如下:房地产投资与国民经济发展总体上存在长期协整关系,两者关系的发展呈现三段式:2001年之前两者尚未形成长期均衡关系,协整关系不显著,1998年到2001年是形成期;2001年之后两者形成了长期均衡关系,表现为协整关系比较显著;2008年之后协整关系脱离原均衡水平,向高位发展。加强对房地产行业的监督与调控,促使其与国民经济保持长期均衡,对经济社会持续、健康、协调发展意义重大。

The Study of Structural Break Points on the Relationship between Real Estate Investment and National Economy in China

Motivated by the characteristics of the increasing relationship between real estate investment and GDP on three periods separated by 2001 and 2008,we discovered the structural break points of cointegration by the test of cointegration with regime shifts.Then we verified the breakpoints with cointegration test in sections,Chow breakpoint test and Granger causality test.The conclusions are as follows.In general there is cointegration relationship between real estate investment and national economy.But in microscopic view,the development has gone through three stages:first,the long-term equilibrium relationship has not been totally formed before 2001 and the cointegration is not significant, but it begins to form between 1998 and 2001;second,the equilibrium relationship has formed after 2001, representing as significant cointegration;third,the cointegration relationship has changed significantly in 2008,shifting to a higher level.Enhancing supervision and regulation over the real estate industry to maintain stable long-term equilibrium with national economy is important to the sustained,healthy and coordinated development of the economy and society.