| 数理统计方法在复合系统诊断预警中的综合应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 佟金萍,王慧敏,仇蕾,朱九龙.数理统计方法在复合系统诊断预警中的综合应用[J].数理统计与管理,2005,24(6):6-11. |
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| 作者姓名： | 佟金萍 王慧敏 仇蕾 朱九龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学商学院应用管理科学研究所,江苏,南京,210098 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部青年骨干教师资助计划,项目编号:200384，江苏省软科学计划项目,项目编号:BR2002026 |
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| 摘 要： | 复合系统研究是系统科学的一个前沿方向,复合系统诊断预警就是评价其发展水平和发展程度并对其发展进行动态监测。面对这样的一个科学问题,很难用一种方法进行分析研究。因此,本文运用多种数理统计方法综合分析复合系统诊断预警:应用主成分分析法看复合系统综合发展水平;应用回归分析进行系统协调性分析;诊断预警警限分析主要采用多指标综合评价指数法。最后结合江苏实例进行实证分析,得到合理的结论。
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| 关 键 词： | 复合系统 诊断预警 数理统计方法 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-1566（2005）06-0006-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-06-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-06-04 |
Compositive Application of Mathematical Statistic Methods to Diagnosis and Early-warning of Complex System |
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| TONG Jin-ping,WANG Hui-min,QIU Lei,ZHU Jiu-long.Compositive Application of Mathematical Statistic Methods to Diagnosis and Early-warning of Complex System[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2005,24(6):6-11. |
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| Authors: | TONG Jin-ping WANG Hui-min QIU Lei ZHU Jiu-long |
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| Institution: | Applied management science Institute, school ofBusiness, Hohai univ. , Nanjing Jiangsu 210098, China |
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| Abstract: | Study on complex system is a front direction in the field of system science.Diagnosis and early-warning of complex system is to evaluate its development level and to warn its development trend.Faced with such a scientific problem,a single method is hard to solve it.Therefore,this paper applies multirorm methods to analyze it compositively.Use prime component method to measure the synthetical development level.Use regression to evolve harmonious analysis to the system.Use the multi-index compositive evaluation method to decide the deadline of early-warning.Finally,combining with the example of Jiangsu Province,the article carries through the demonstration analysis and gains reasonable conclusions. |
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| Keywords: | complex system diagnosis and early-warning mathematical statistic method |
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