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| 基于Box-Jenkins方法的青南高原降水量时间序列分析建模与预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 王晓鹏,曹广超,丁生喜.基于Box-Jenkins方法的青南高原降水量时间序列分析建模与预测[J].数理统计与管理,2008,27(4). |
| 作者姓名： | 王晓鹏 曹广超 丁生喜 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 青海师范大学数学与信息科学系,青海,西宁,810008 2. 青海师范大学地理与资源环境系,青海,西宁,810008 3. 青海大学经济系,青海,西宁,810016 |
| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金统计学项目 , 青海省科技厅自然科学基金 |
| 摘 要： | 应用基于Box-Jenkins方法的时间序列分析技术,对青南高原的四个典型地区1961-2005年降水量序列进行ARMA建模分析:验证了四地区年降水量序列的时间序列特性,研究并选择了这些序列的最佳ARMA模型,本文也通过模型对未来降水量进行了预测.模型实证分析的结果表明:在青藏高原降水量时间序列分析建模与预测方面,Box-Jenkins方法及其模型是一种精度较高且切实有效的方法模型. |
| 关 键 词： | Box-Jenkins方法 年降水量 时间序列分析 ARMA模型 |
Time Series Analysis and Forecast Model of Annual Rain-Fall on South of Qinghai Plateau Based on Box-Jenkins Methods |
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| WANG Xiao-peng,CAO Guang-chao,DING Sheng-xi.Time Series Analysis and Forecast Model of Annual Rain-Fall on South of Qinghai Plateau Based on Box-Jenkins Methods[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2008,27(4). | |
| Authors: | WANG Xiao-peng CAO Guang-chao DING Sheng-xi |
| Abstract: | Applying the time series analysis technology based on Box-Jenkins methods,this paper analysis and builds the ARMA model for annual rain-fall series of four typical area on south of Qinghal Plateau since 1961 through 2005,verifies the time series characteristics and chooses the best ARMA model for those rain-fall series.This paper also gives the forecasting results of the future rain-fall with those models,which indicate the ARMA model could be an effective and practical way to analysis and forecast Annual Rain-Fall on Qinghal-Tibetan Plateau with high precision. |
| Keywords: | Box-Jenkins methods annual rain-fall time series analysis ARMA model |
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