| 调整未成年人死亡概率及实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张志强,张润楚.调整未成年人死亡概率及实证分析[J].数理统计与管理,2004,23(1):7-10. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张志强 张润楚 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南开大学数学科学学院统计学系,天津,300071
2. 山西财经大学统计学系,太原,030006 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(10171051)的支持。 |
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| 摘 要： | 由于我国人口普查存在着漏报现象,致使各年龄的人口总数与实际存在一定程度的不吻合,尤其是未成年人(0-14岁),人口数量存在的问题更为严重,从而由此推算的未成年人的年龄别死亡概率qx,c与实际不符。针对此问题,本文建立了一个修正后的Gompertz生存模型,并利用这一修正后的生存模型对我国普查所得的年龄别死亡概率进行调整,为准确估计未成年人年龄别死亡概率提供一个新的方法。
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| 关 键 词： | Gompertx生存模型 矩母函数 年龄别死亡概率 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-1566(2004)01-0007-04 |
Adjustment infant mortality probability and evidence analysis |
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| ZHANG Zhi-qiang,ZHANG Run-chu.Adjustment infant mortality probability and evidence analysis[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2004,23(1):7-10. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Zhi-qiang ZHANG Run-chu |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Zhi-qiang~1,ZHANG Run-chu~2 |
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| Abstract: | In past census of China,there was a problem that not few people failed to register,so that the infered population deviates from real population in some extent.Especially,the problem at the age interval from 0 to 14 is more serious.This leads that the infered infant age-specific mortality probability q_(x,c) from data is not reliable.To solve the problem,in this paper we establish a modified Gompertz survival model and apply this model to adjust q_(x,c).Also,a new method of accurate estimating infant age-specific mortality probablilty is proposed. |
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| Keywords: | Gomperts Survival Model Moment Generating Function Age-specific Mortality Probability |
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