基于Pulic智力资本模型的上市公司财务危机预警研究

智力资本在知识经济时代对企业的发展至关重要.本文考察Pulic智力资本评测模型是否能够用于企业财务危机预警.首先基于2003年至2007年中国A股市场新增ST公司样本及配对样本的前三年数据对Pulic模型综合指标进行单变量分析证实了该模型的预警可行性,然后根据三项因素驱动指标分别运用多元判别、逻辑回归、神经网络和最小二乘支持向量机方法建立预警模型进行回判和外推.结果表明,Pulic模型在ST前两年具有较高的判断准确性,可以通过对智力资本的考察而预知企业未来的财务状况.

Empirical Study of Finance Distress Prediction Based on Pulic's Intellectual Capital Model

Intellectual Capital is crucial for the development of enterprise in the knowledge economy era. This paper studies whether Pulic's intellectual capital model can be used for early warning of financial distress.After verifying the feasibility of the model based on univariate analysis,this paper uses four dominating methods of multivariate discrimination,logistic regression,neural network and least squares support vector machine to carry out empirical study according to three driving indexes deduced by Pulic's model.Result shows these four methods have good classification abilities before two years,and it is possible for Pulic's model to predict financial states of enterprise in the future.