利用计数统计模型方法评价大连星海公园旅游的经济价值

在非市场条件下如何评价旅游资源的经济价值是自然旅游公园管理工作中所面临的一个重要问题.正确地估计这类公园的旅游需求函数则是对其有效地进行经济价值评价的关键.由于旅游次数数据具有非负整数和截断的性质,使用传统的多元线性回归模型来估计旅游需求函数则会产生较大的偏差.因此。本文采用非线性最小二乘、截断泊松分布和截断负二项分布等计量经济学模型估计大连星海公园的旅游需求函数,以此来计算公园旅游的经济价值。

Application of Count Data Models in Valuing Tourism Benefits of Dalian Xinghai Park

Valuing non-market tourism resources is one of the most important issues in natural resource type of park management,in which correct estimation of travel demand function is the key for effectively quantifying the park resource values.Due to the non-negative integer and truncated nature of the tourism trip data,the classical multiple linear regression models may not be appropriate in estimating the trip demand function.Therefore,in this paper we used Nonlinear Least Square(NLS),Truncated Poisson(TPSON)and Truncated Negative Binomial(TNB)probability models to estimate travel demand functions,which were then employed to estimate the park's economic value.