| 指数回归-ARMA模型在我国人均生活电力消费量预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 查奇芬,焦小伟.指数回归-ARMA模型在我国人均生活电力消费量预测中的应用[J].数理统计与管理,2009,28(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 查奇芬 焦小伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏大学财经学院,江苏,镇江,212013 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目，江苏省教育厅重点项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 随着我国经济快速增长、居民收入水平的显著提高,生活电力消费量快速增长。本文以1983-2006年我国人均生活电力消费量的历史数据为基础,根据趋势图拟合出与之相似的指数回归曲线,然后对其残差序列进行分析和识别,找出适合我国人均生活电力消费量的指数回归-ARMA模型,并根据此模型进行预测分析。
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| 关 键 词： | 指数回归 ARMA模型 人均电力消费量 |
The Application of Exponential Regression and ARMA Model in Annual per Capita Electricity Consumption of Households Forecast |
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| ZHA Qi-fen,JIAO Xiao-wei.The Application of Exponential Regression and ARMA Model in Annual per Capita Electricity Consumption of Households Forecast[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2009,28(6). |
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| Authors: | ZHA Qi-fen JIAO Xiao-wei |
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| Abstract: | With the rapid increase of our country's economy and the marked improvement of the people's living standard,the electricity consumption of households increased rapidly.Based on the historical data from 1983 to 2006 of the annual per capita electricity consumption of households,we fit approximate exponential regressive curve by trend graph,and then analyzed the residual series using time series theory.At last,we established an Exponential Regression-ARMA(p,q) Model which applied to annual per capita electricity consumption of households. |
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| Keywords: | ARMA model exponential regression annual per capita electricity consumption |
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