中国货币需求函数的实证研究

本文以1998年东南亚金融危机后为背景,从经典的凯恩斯货币需求理论分析出发,运用协整检验和误差修正模型对我国货币需求问题进行了研究。结果显示,货币需求、国民收入、贷款利率和通货膨胀率之间存在协整关系,货币需求函数表现出高收入弹性和高利率弹性,货币量、利率和货币政策最终目标之间存在短期均衡关系,M1主要受收入因素影响而呈现出长期稳定性特征,贷款利率对货币需求有显著调节作用。

The Empirical Analysis of the Demand for Money in China

This paper analyzed the demand for money in China since 1998 financial crisis by co- integration test and error correction model,and it is based on the analysis of classic Keynesian Monetary Demand Theory.The results showed that the demand for money,income,lending interest rates and inflation rate are co-integrated.The demand for money from income and it from interest rate are highly elastic.There is the short run equilibrium relationship among the demand for money,interest rates and monetary policy.The result to analyze M1 showed that the elasticity of demand for money from income is higher than that from interest rates,and lending interest rate maybe regulate the money demand significantly.