基于WEGN模型对我国主要城市气温的模拟和预测

本文对我国10个主要城市气温指标建立了天气发生器模型,用Fourier分析和时间序列的方法进行建模,用统计模拟的方法分别生成了一年的气温数据,来对当地的气温指标进行了预测。在此基础上,我们对模型进行了改进,通过增加模拟次数,建立了全年日均气温的点估计和区间估计.最后,以三个实例验证了改进模型。

Simulation and Prediction of Chinese Major Cities' Temperature Based on WEGN Model

This paper develops the weather generator for 10 major cities'temperature in China,and models the temperature by the method of Fourier analysis and time series,then provides one-year data with the model developed to forecast the local next year's temperature in statistical way.On this basis, in order to improve this model,we increase the simulation times.As a result of it,we finally establish point estimation and interval estimation for the annual average daily temperature.At last,we use three examples to d...