The Diagnosis of Deep-Vein Thrombosis: An Application of Decision Analysis

Using information from the medical literature on the accuracy and complications of diagnostic tests and therapy, a decision-analysis model is developed and used to evaluate alternative diagnostic strategies for deep-vein thrombosis. With the help of an integrated computer-software package, the probability of death or major complication of different diagnostic strategies is computed, and the strategies exhibiting the least morbidity and mortality are identified. The sensitivity of the results to changes in the parameters of the model are explored. The work provides surprising insights into the role of diagnostic tests.