我国人口发展总量的中长期预测模型

通过对1994―2005年男、女出生人口性别比的变化和2001―2005年城镇化趋势的分析,建立了我国人口发展总量的中长期预测模型,并针对在总和生育率四种不同情况下2006-2100年的人口发展状况进行了长期预测和详细分析.在目前人口结构状况下,将总和生育率控制在更替水平左右,既可保证总人口不超过15亿,又能降低人口老龄化程度,可为人口控制、决策提供较为科学的依据.

The Predicting Model of the Middle-and Long-term Growth of China Overall Population

Based on the change of the sex ratio of China over the period from 1994 to 2005 as well as the analyses of the urbanization of China over the period from 2001 to 2005 in this paper,the model is established of predicting both middle-and long-term growth of China population.And then in view of four different circumstances summarized for the birth rate,a long-term prediction and a detailed analysis of China population growth are conducted for the period from the year of 2006 to that of 2100.The birth rate should be controlled within the balance between birth and death,in which light,two conclusions are reached as follows: the total population of China will not exceed 1.5 billion,and meanwhile,the degree of aging will be reduced.A new method of providing scientific grounds for policy making on the control of population is put out.