Supporting hydrogen based transportation: case studies with Global MARKAL Model

Steadily growing prices of oil and emissions coming from conventional vehicles, might force a switch to an alternative and less polluting fuel in the coming future. In this article we analyze the potential influence of selected factors for successful market penetration of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in hydrogen based private transportation economy. Using a world scale, full energy system, bottom-up, optimization model (Global MARKAL Model—GMM) we address the possibility of supporting the fuel cell vehicle technology to become competitive in the markets. In a series of optimizations we evaluate the potential influence of governmental supports and the internalization of externalities related to CO₂ and local pollution emissions originating from the transportation sector, as well as preferential crediting options and demonstration projects promoting fuel cell vehicles. The results suggest that the crucial element is the price of fuel cells and their further potential to reduce costs. This reduction of costs may be triggered by governmental support such as direct subsidies to fuel cells, preferential crediting options for the buildup of hydrogen infrastructure as well as penalization of emitters of CO₂ and/or local pollutants.