高血压病的风险因素分析与研究

高血压病是全球性多发病之一，其发病率在中国逐年上升，影响高血压疾病的因素很多，本文研究的是年龄、BMI、家族史、吸烟时间、吸烟数量、饮酒时间、饮酒频率、饮酒数量和户外活动，共九个因素，研究的主要目的是将这些因素对高血压患病影响的重要性程度进行排序，并建立相应患病概率的预测模型，这不仅对医疗保险中保单的核保提供了风险度量的判别依据，而且对于人们日常生活疾病的预防、监视也有一定的指导意义。本文首先用单因子Logistic回归剔除与高血压患病相关性较小的因素，继而用主成分分析方法消除因素的共线性，最后用Logistic回归拟合患病概率模型并根据系数进行排序和预测。结果无论是男性还是女性，对高血压病影响最大的都是家族史，其次为BMI和年龄。

Research and Analysis on Risk Factors of Hypertension

Hypertension is one of the most universal diseases in the world and its incidence of disease is increasing gradually in China. Many factors lead to Hypertension. They are namely age, BMI, family heredity, smoking time and frequency, drinking time, frequency and quantity, out-door activity. The primary objective of this thesis is to rank these factors by the individual degree of their influence to Hypertension, moreover to establish the forecast model of sick probability accordingly. Not only does it provide the criteria of the risk measurement for medical insurance but also indicate the pre-caution and surveillance of diseases in human's daily life. In this method, single factor logistic regression is used to kick off the less importartce factors, thus by the means of main composition analysis, linearity connection among factors is removed, finally imitate the sick probability model by logistic regression and rank the factor by the coefficients. We may safely draw the conclusion that, in both male and female cases, the family heredity is the most significant factor of Hypertension, which is followed by BMI and Age.