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抗艾滋病药物的评价与预测模型
引用本文:邓麟,顾立伟,王锋刚,王经民.抗艾滋病药物的评价与预测模型[J].纯粹数学与应用数学,2012(2):275-284.
作者姓名:邓麟  顾立伟  王锋刚  王经民
作者单位:西北农林科技大学,陕西杨凌712100
基金项目:西北农林科技大学教学改革研究项目(JY0902109)
摘    要:第一问中对CD4数量和HIV浓度随周期变化分别建立线性模型和二次模型,由数据确立中度患者CD4随时间变化模型为:C(T)=0.0496T+3.0659,HIV随时间变化为:H(T)=0.0044T2-0.2317T+4.2899.确定最佳治疗终止时间为:轻度患者28.90周,中度患者31.97周,重度患者为40.86周,平均最佳终止治疗时间33.91周.第二问中得出疗法4效果最好,疗法3次之,疗法1最差.然后通过建立了回归分析模型,对最优疗法进行预测,得到最佳终止治疗时间为25.53周.第三问在第二问的基础上增加了治疗费用对治疗效果的影响,计算得出:疗法3为最优,疗法1次之,疗法2最差.用疗法3的数据进行作图分析得到疗法3的最佳治疗终止时间为40周.

关 键 词:CD  HIT  健康指数  模糊综合评判  评价比

The evaluation and prediction model of the effect of AIDS therapy
Deng Lin,Gu Liwei,Wang Fenggang,Wang Jingmin.The evaluation and prediction model of the effect of AIDS therapy[J].Pure and Applied Mathematics,2012(2):275-284.
Authors:Deng Lin  Gu Liwei  Wang Fenggang  Wang Jingmin
Institution:(Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China)
Abstract:In first section,we set up linear and quadratic model for density of CD4 and HIV with time. Amount of CD4 of middle sufferer with time satisfy: C(T) = 0.0496T + 3.0659,Amount of HIV: H(T) =0.0044T2 - 0.2317T + 4.2899.Stopping therapy best time: early,middle and late sufferer are: 28.8th week,31.97th week and 40.8th week.Average best stopping time is 33.91th week.In second section,the result show that treatment 4 is best one,after treatment 3;treatment 1 is bad.We set up regress model for treatment 4,and predict best stopping time: 25.53th week.Based on the second section,the third section add the influence of cost to effect of treatment.By fuzz judge matrix,show that treatment 3 is the best one,after treatment 1;treatment 2 is bad.Through the graphical analysis,stopping therapy best time for treatment 3 is 40th week.
Keywords:CD4  HIV  health index  fuzz general evaluation  ratio of effect with cost
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