多元技术创新扩散的系统动力学模型及仿真

本文力图放宽模型的假设,考虑创新技术市场间的非独立性、扩散过程中潜在采用-等待采用-已采用三阶段中时间延迟性,建立多元技术创新扩散的系统动力学模型,并用Vensim进行模拟仿真研究.仿真结果表明该模型比较符合实际,可为多元技术创新扩散的理论研究和实际实施提供理论指导.

System Dynamics Models and Simulation of Multi-technology Innovation Diffusion

This article tried to relax the assumptions of Bass model because part of the model’s assumptions disaccords with the reality.Considering the non-independence between innovative technology markets and the time-delay among the three stages: potential adoption,waiting for adoption and adopted during the process of diffusion,this paper established a system dynamics model of multi-technology innovation diffusion and simulated it using Vensim software.The simulation result demonstrates that the model built is more in line with the reality,which means that it can provide theoretical guidance for both the studies on theory and the actual implementation of the multi-technology innovation diffusion model.