Key words结构视角下的欧元区主权债务可持续性研究

基于债务结构的研究视角,以德国和PIIGS五国为例,构建主权债务可持续性模型,量化研究债务自身结构、宏观经济结构以及财政支出结构对债务可持续性的影响,并运用向量自回归模型进行检验.研究结果表明：适度地提高长期债券所占比重（以65％-75％为宜）,同时降低短期债务的比重（不超过15％）,改善宏观经济结构并促进国内就业,扩大固定资产投资的财政支出,均有助于抑制债务规模的持续扩张,维持主权债务的可持续性.

Sustainability of Sovereign Debt in the Euro Area from Structure Perspective

From the perspective of debt structure, with six countries as examples, including Germany, Portugal, Ire- land, Italy, Greece and Spain, the influences of debt structure, macro economic structure and government expenditure struc- ture on the sovereign debt sustainability were analyzed through a debt structure model, and then the empirical study result was examined by the VAR model. The research result shows that it is beneficial for the debt sustainability to increase the long-term bond ratio （appropriate if between 65% and 75%）, decrease the short-term debt ratio （no greater than 15%）, to improve the macro-economic structure, to promote the employment and to expand the government expenditure in fixed asset investment.