房价波动的财富效应对城镇居民收入的影响——基于湖南省的协整检验分析

基于微观视角,梳理房地产财富效应的作用机理,构建了房价影响居民收入的理论基础,并利用湖南省1998~2014年数据实证检验了房价波动对居民收入的影响程度.实证结果表明,房价与居民收入之间具有长期协整关系,若房地产市场繁荣致使房价增长1%,则居民收入相应增长0.519%.通过向量误差修正模型检验发现,当短期房价波动偏离长期均衡值时,以负0.33的力度反向作用机制将波动拉回到长期均衡值.

The Effect of Housing Price Fluctuation on the Income of Urban Residents:Dynamic Econometric Analysis Based on Hunan Province

Abstract From the micro perspective,this paper reviewed the effect of real estate wealth effect mechanism,construc-ted the theoretical basis of the impact of housing prices on the residents'income,empirically tested the impact of housing price fluctuation on the income of residents by using the data of Hunan province from 1 998~2014.The empirical results show that there is the long-term integration relationship between housing price and the income of residents,when the housing price in-crease 1%,the residents income grows 0.5 1 9%.The vector error correction model test shows that when the short-term fluctu-ations deviates from the long-term equilibrium value,the reverse mechanism will draw back to the long-term equilibrium value at the strength of -0.33.