中国城市化发展、能源消费与碳排放的实证研究

选取了1995年至2007年我国29个省市面板数据,建立以城市化水平为被解释变量,能源消费和碳排放作为解释变量的模型,通过协方差分析检验和Haus man检验的分析结果,确定研究模型的形式为固定影响变截距模型,最后,通过对拟合模型的结果分析,实证结果表明:高能耗、高排放、粗放式经济发展方式不利于城市化水平的提高;同时,各省市的城市化发展水平也存在差异.因此,各省市应在城市化工业化进程中推进产业结构和能源消费结构调整使其朝着更有利于节能环保的方向演进,节能减排政策的调整重点应该放在能源强度和能源消费碳强度上.

Research on Relationship Between Chinese Urbanization Process, Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission

This paper selected 29 provincial panel data from 1995 to 2007, and found both energy consumption and carbon emission were the Granger causes of urbanization level by the use of Granger causality test. Then this paper set up a model, whose variables are energy consumption, carbon emission and urbanization level. By means of covariance analysis test and the results of Hausman Test, we have determined the form of research model is the model of fixed-effects and variational intercept. Finally, through the results analysis of fitting models, we have got the conclusions as follows: high energy consumption, high exhaustion and extensive economic growth are bad for the improvement of urbanization level. Meanwhile, there are differences between the urbanization level of each province as well. Therefore, in order to make it go forward on the way of energy conservation and environmental protection, each province should adjust industrial structure and energy consumption structure. Moreover, the key point of policy adjustment of energy conservation and environmental protection should be put on the intension of energy and the carbon intension of energy consumption.