区域经济发展智能预测方法

分析了影响区域经济发展的各种因素,指出由于这些因素相互制约、相互影响,使得传统的经济预测方法越来越难以胜任区域经济发展预测的需要.论述了核方法在处理非线性、不确定性和不精确性数据上存在的优势,建立了基于核方法三种经济预测模型,并将这三种预测模型与其它两种预测方法一起,对区域经济的发展进行组合预测.最后,采用数据融合的方法将各个体模型的预测结果进行集成,作为最终的输出.实际的结果表明,基于核方法的组合预测技术能取得较为理想的预测效果.

INTELLIGENT FORECASTING FOR THE REGIONAL ECONOMIC

Based on the correlation analysis, we point out the factors, which work on the improvement of regional economic, restrict and influence each other. In the end, the traditional forecasting methods are difficult to satisfy the need of economic forecasting of regional economic increasingly. The advantage of kernel method in dealing with nonlinear, uncertain and imprecise data has been discussed. Three economic forecasting model based on kernel method have been put forward. Finally, combined with other two forecasting models, we use the above three models to forecast the regional economic. The result show we can gain an ideal forecasting effect by the way of combination forecasting based on kernel method.