经济增长、金融发展、对外贸易与能源消费动态关系研究

基于我国1978-2013年的统计数据,运用ARDL边限协整检验技术和VECM格兰杰因果检验方法,对经济增长、金融发展、对外贸易与能源消费之间的关系进行了系统地研究.实证结果表明,经济增长、金融发展、对外贸易与能源消费之间存在长期协整关系.经济增长和能源消费不满足EKC假设,两者之间呈现正"U"型变化,目前我国经济位于曲线右边,即能源消费随着经济的增长而增加.金融发展对能源消费存在显著的正向效应,对外贸易的发展也会增加能源消费.格兰杰因果检验表明存在从经济增长到能源消费、金融发展和对外贸易的单向因果关系.金融发展和能源消费之间存在长期双向因果关系,同样的,这种关系也被发现在对外贸易和能源消费、金融发展和对外贸易之间.

Dynamic Relationship between Economic Growth, Financial Development, Trade Openness and Energy Consumption

Based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach for cointegration and the vector error correction model (VECM) Granger causality approach, systematically investigates the relationship between economic growth, financial development, trade openness and energy consumption in case of China over the period of 1978-2013. The empirical evidence confirmed the existence of long-term cointegration between economic growth, financial development, trade openness and energy consumption. Further, we find the EKC hypothesis is not supported. There is a U-shaped relationship between economic growth and energy consumption and our economy is at the right of the curve, which means economic growth increases energy consumption. The relationship between financial development and energy consumption is significantly positive. Trade openness also has a positive impact on energy consumption. The Granger causality analysis validates the unidirectional relationship running from economic growth to energy consumption, financial development, and trade openness. There is long-term bidirectional causality between financial development and energy consumption. The feedback relationship also exists between trade openness and energy consumption, and financial development and trade openness.