低碳约束下湖南省产业结构优化研究

在湖南省"十二五"规划工业产业节能减排的背景下,如何在碳减排目标的基础上,实现产业结构优化,成为湖南省面临的重大挑战.本文构建低碳约束下湖南省主导产业选择指标体系,计算并选取湖南省无低碳约束和有低碳约束下的主导产业.进一步,本文设计无低碳约束、弱低碳约束和强低碳约束三种情景模拟,分析不同的低碳约束条件对湖南省主导产业选择的影响.本文结论如下:1)无低碳约束条件下,湖南省主导产业包括有色金属冶炼及压延加工业等碳生产力较低的行业,低碳约束条件下,湖南省主导产业包括食品制造业等碳生产力较高的行业.这表明,考虑低碳约束条件,湖南省主导产业由碳生产力较低的行业向碳生产力较高的行业转变.2)情景模拟结果表明,一些传统支柱型产业仍是湖南省产业结构优化中需重点发展的产业,且随着低碳政策的深化和节能减排目标的扩大,战略性产业如医药制造业成为主导产业,在产业结构优化中发挥中坚作用.

A Research of Industrial Structure Optimization under Low-Carbon Constrains in Hunan Province

In the background of industrial energy conservation in the Hunan “Twelfth Five Year Plan”,how to achieve the industrial structure optimization on the basis of carbon reduction becomes a major challenge in Hunan Province.We devel-oped the leading industries index system under low carbon constraint.Then,we selected the leading industries without carbon constraint or with low carbon constraint.This paper also designed three scenario simulation———without carbon constraints, weak carbon constraint and strong carbon constraint———to analyze how different carbon constraints influence the choice of the leading industries in Hunan Province.The conclusions are as follows：1 ）Without carbon constraint,the leading industries in Hunan are industries with lower carbon productivity like non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry.Under low carbon constraint,the leading industries in Hunan are industries with high carbon productivity like food manufacturing indus-try.It suggests that the leading industries are changing from lower carbon productivity industries to industries with higher car-bon productivity under low carbon constraint.2）The results of scenarios simulations show that some traditional pillar industries are still the key industries in Hunan industrial structure optimization.Along with the deepening of low carbon policy and energy conservation and emission reduction goals,strategic industries such as pharmaceutical manufacturing industry become dominant industries,and play a leading role in the industrial structure optimization.