我国国债发行规模的计量分析

国债发行是我国政府弥补财政收支差额、缓解财政压力和实施宏观经济调控的重要工具.国债发行规模是否适度既直接影响政府宏观调控力度和效果,也关系到国民经济健康有序运行及社会安定、其研究具有重要的理论和现实意义.本文从计量经济模型和定量分析的角度,在研究影响国债规模的主要因素的基础上,通过建立有关计量经济模型,运用1981-2005年的样本数据,利用EVIEWS 4.0软件进行分析和预测.文章认为国家财政收支差额和还本付息是影响我国国债发行规模的最重要因素;长期以来,我国实行以弥补财政收支差额和国债还本付息(发新债还旧债)为主要内容的积极型国债政策,国债规模相对过大,今后应适当压缩国债发行规模,转变为稳健的国债政策,更加有效地发挥国债在促进经济社会发展中的作用.

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ON THE ISSUANCE SCALE OF CHINESE NATIONAL DEBT

National debt issuance is one of important utilities that our government offset financial dificit,relax financial press,and actualize macroeconomics control.That the scale of national debt whether is moderate,not only affects directly the effect of government macroeconomics control,but also connects country economy healthful and perfect circulating and society stabilization,this subject is of far-reaching theory and real meaning.This text stands on the view of econometric model and quantitative analysis,establishes related econometric model,exercises 1981-2005 year swatch data,uses EVIEWS 4.0 software to analyze and forecast,and makes sure that financial deficit and the repayment of capital and interests are the mostly important factors which affect the scale of national debt.During a long time,the expanded national debt policy causes outspread of the scale of national debt,we ought to reduce the scale and translate moderate national debt policy in future in order to exert effectively national debt function.