| Abstract: | ABSTRACT. A global model of population‐resource interaction is proposed consisting of two first order ordinary differential equations. In it the population growth rate increases due to increasing technology, then declines due to declining resources. When the model is fit to twentieth century data it predicts that global population will peak and then decline while already declining global resources bottom out; both will eventually stabilize slightly above their lows. Because of the uncertainty of model parameters and resource data, the values and times of these peaks and lows are uncertain, but the qualitative behavior of the model transcends this uncertainty. Actual best‐fit values of population include a peak of nearly nine billion about year 2050 and a peak rate of decline of 0.3% about year 2100. Global resources bottom out at 70% of optimum around year 2100. Variability and sensitivity analyses are also provided. |
