居民消费的计量经济模型实证分析

本文在凯恩斯的绝对收入假说的基础上，分析影响居民消费的其他原因，以及这些因素与消费的相关程度，建立计量经济学模型，并采用中国城镇居民的收入消费等统计资料，对消费函数进行实证分析。文中提出用线性二次指数平滑法估算居民对通货膨胀的预期，并指出不应将居民储蓄视为消费的单一方程计量经济学模型中的解释变量，进而有针对性地提出调节总需求的应对策略。

Empirical Analysis of Econometric Model in Resident Consumption

This paper extents the absolute income hypothesis of Cairns to include the factors that impacts resident consumption,and establishes econometric model after analyzing the correlation between these factors and consumption.Then based on the statistic data of Chinese urban residents' consumption,some empirical analysis is done.In this paper,linear quadric exponential smoothing method is employed to estimate inflation expectation,and savings is proposed not to be regarded as an explanatory variablew of single-e...