Local Lyapunov exponents computed from observed data

Summary We develop methods for determining local Lyapunov exponents from observations of a scalar data set. Using average mutual information and the method of false neighbors, we reconstruct a multivariate time series, and then use local polynomial neighborhood-to-neighborhood maps to determine the phase space partial derivatives required to compute Lyapunov exponents. In several examples we demonstrate that the methods allow one to accurately reproduce results determined when the dynamics is known beforehand. We present a new recursive QR decomposition method for finding the eigenvalues of products of matrices when that product is severely ill conditioned, and we give an argument to show that local Lyapunov exponents are ambiguous up to order 1/L in the number of steps due to the choice of coordinate system. Local Lyapunov exponents are the critical element in determining the practical predictability of a chaotic system, so the results here will be of some general use.