Time series analysis of the probability of survival as unemployed |
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| Authors: | S Haberman |
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| Institution: | Actuarial Science Unit, The City University, London, UK |
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| Abstract: | Multiple regression models are used to present the variation over time of the persistence of both sexes as unemployed from one calendar quarter to the next. Various linear and logit models are fitted to eight sex- and duration-specific survival probabilities and their forecasting ability is tested over a recent period of rising unemployment. The results are compared and equations are suggested for estimating future probabilities. |
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| Keywords: | Time series analysis Survival as unemployed Unemployment benefit Social security Multiple regression |
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