| 中国收入分配差距预测的GM(1,1)模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨竹莘.中国收入分配差距预测的GM(1,1)模型[J].数学的实践与认识,2007,37(10):50-56. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨竹莘 |
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| 作者单位： | 东北财经大学,数量经济系,大连,116025 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;辽宁省教育厅人文社科研究计划资助项目(重点) |
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| 摘 要： | 基尼系数是现行较为通用的衡量一国收入分配差距的指标,利用灰色系统中的GM(1,1)预测模型,建立起对我国收入分配差距的预测模型,得到2005年基尼系数的预测值0.471,进而建立精度更高的新陈代谢模型,得到2006—2010年的基尼系数预测值,结果表明到2010年,基尼系数有可能临近0.5,基尼系数依然是攀升的,从而分配差距的扩大趋势依未改变,但增长幅度缓慢而平稳,这为当前及今后几年经济发展和调节收入分配差距的政策制定提供了一定的参考.
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| 关 键 词： | 收入分配 基尼系数 GM(1 1)模型 预测 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年3月30日 |
A GM(1,1)the Model for the Income Adisparity Forecast in China |
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| YANG Zhu-xin.A GM(1,1)the Model for the Income Adisparity Forecast in China[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2007,37(10):50-56. |
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| Authors: | YANG Zhu-xin |
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| Abstract: | The Gini coefficient is a more general index in current which weights income assignment disparity,this paper uses GM(1,1) model in the gray system and establishes income assignment disparity forecast model in china,obtains the Gini coefficient forecast value is 0.471 in 2005.Moreover,the higher precise metabolism model is established,obtaining Gini coefficient forecast value 2005—2010 year.Finally indicated: In ″the eleventh five year plan″ period,the Gini coefficient has the possibility close to 0.5,and Gini coefficient has increased, thus the trend for assignment disparity expand has been steady,but it′s rate is slowly and steady gradually,thus also has provided certain reference for economy development and the adjustment of income assignment disparity policy formulation the current and next several year. |
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| Keywords: | income assignment Gini coefficient GM(1 1) model forecast |
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