应急物流能力突变模型研究

运用燕尾突变理论,以物流能力为状态变量,物流流量变化率、流速变化率和时间变化率为控制变量,建立应急物流能力突变模型,运用势函数确定了分岐点集,讨论了应急物流能力的突变临界点及稳定性,并用算例分析模型应用的可行性.最后得出三点结论:根据实测及调查数据可以确定三个控制变量的值,从而确定控制点在分歧点集的区域;通过计算分析可以确定应急物流能力在分岐点集各区域的奇点个数和性质;其突变方向和可能性随之可以确定:控制点从奇点多的区域向奇点少的区域移动,应急物流能力发生突变的可能性大,反之可能性小,甚至不发生突变.因此把握控制点在分岐点集中的变化方向和规律,采取相应措施改变相应控制变量,可以提升或稳定应急物流能力.

The Catastrophic Model of Emergency Logistics Capability

Taking the catastrophe theory as a foundation,the paper built a swallowtail catastrophe model of emergency logistics capability with logistics capability as state variable, logistic flow change rate,logistic velocity change rate and time change rate as three control variables.After this,the bifurcation set is ascertained by potential function,the break points and its stability of emergency logistics capability are discussed and an example is given to test the effectiveness of the model.Three conclusions are educed:the value of three control variables can be obtained by the data of survey and then we can know control point at which area of the bifurcation set;afterwards,the number and character of critical points at each bifurcation set can be ascertained by analyse and calculation;lastly,the break orientation and possibility of emergency logistics capability can be definituded:emergency logistics will change when control point move from area with more break points to area with less ones,contrarily,the possibility is little and zero indeed.So we should grasp the break orientation and rule,take actions to change some control variables,and the capability of emergency logistics will be advanced or stabilized.