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| 基于灰色预测模型的新疆肺结核疫情分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 张利萍,郑彦玲,王春燕.基于灰色预测模型的新疆肺结核疫情分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(18):96-103. |
| 作者姓名： | 张利萍 郑彦玲 王春燕 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 新疆医科大学医学工程技术学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830011;新疆医科大学公共卫生学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 2. 新疆医科大学医学工程技术学院,新疆乌鲁木齐,830011 3. 新疆乌鲁木齐第四人民医院,新疆乌鲁木齐,830002 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，自治区第六次全国人口普查资料开发立项课题 |
| 摘 要： | 借助灰色系统理论对新疆2004-2010年肺结核发病率进行研究,建立不同维度的静态GM(1,1)模型与动态等维递补灰预测模型对数据进行模拟和预测.针对新疆肺结核疫情发病率数据,探索建立新疆肺结核疫情传播预测模型,为肺结核防治提供科学依据. |
| 关 键 词： | 肺结核 GM(1 1)模型 等维递补GM(1 1)模型 |
Xinjiang Pulmonary Tuberculosis Epidemic Situation Analysis Based on Grey Prediction Model |
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| ZHANG Li-ping , ZHENG Yan-ling , WANG Chun-yan.Xinjiang Pulmonary Tuberculosis Epidemic Situation Analysis Based on Grey Prediction Model[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2012,42(18):96-103. | |
| Authors: | ZHANG Li-ping ZHENG Yan-ling WANG Chun-yan |
| Institution: | 1.College of Medical Engineering,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830011,China) (2.School of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi 830011,China) (3.Fourth People’s Hospital of Urumqi 830002,China) |
| Abstract: | In this paper,we study 2004-2010 annual incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Xinjiang by means of grey system theory,and build the static GM(1,1)and dynamic equivalent dimensions additional grey prediction model for data simulation and prediction. By analysis of the Xinjiang tuberculosis incidence data,we explore an optimal theoretical model for prediction of the Xinjiang pulmonary tuberculosis epidemic situation,and provide scientific basis for prevention and control of tuberculosis. |
| Keywords: | pulmonary tuberculosis GM(1 1) equivalent dimensions additional GM(1 1) |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |