福建农村剩余劳动力的影响因素及转移趋势——基于超越对数生产函数模型

在新形势下,农村剩余劳动力转移对经济发展和社会稳定具有重要的影响.对福建省的13个农村剩余劳动力转移的影响因素进行数据分析,首先用相关分析确定5个重要因素,再基于逐步回归分析建立超越对数生产函数模型,确定影响农村剩余劳动力转移的2个关键因素:第二产业就业比重和第三产业就业比重,并结合灰色预测的结果,预测2011-2013年农村剩余劳动力转移趋势.最后,结合实际情况,提出针对性的建议.

A Study of the Influential Factors and Transfer Trend of Rural Surplus Labor in Fujian Province-Based on Trans-log Production Function Model

In the new situation,the transfer of rural surplus labor has vital influences on economic development and social stability.In this paper,a mathematical model has been set up to analyse the data about 13 factors affecting the transfer of rural surplus labor in Fujian province.At the beginning,five important elements are ascertained through relevant analysis. Then establish the function model beyond logarithm production based on stepwise regression analysis to confirm the two key factors affecting the transfer trend of rural surplus labor: employment proportions of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry,together with grey forecasting results to predict the transfer trend of rural surplus labor from 2011-2013.In the end,some practical suggestions are proposed according to the objective conditions.