| 基于残差修正GM(1,1)模型的火灾事故预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵玲,唐敏康.基于残差修正GM(1,1)模型的火灾事故预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(18):82-87. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵玲 唐敏康 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西理工大学资源与环境工程学院,江西赣州,341000 |
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| 摘 要： | 为掌握火灾发生、发展的规律,针对火灾事故的特点,根据灰色理论,建立了我国火灾起数及死亡人数的GM(1,1)预测模型.由于火灾起数的波动性较大,运用残差变化规律,对所建立的GM(1,1)预测模型进行了修正,得到残差修正GM(1,1)预测模型,应用该模型对火灾起数进行预测,使预测精度达到了一级.预测结果可以为消防安全管理部门的决策提供科学的依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 火灾 GM(1 1)模型 残差修正 预测 |
Prediction of Fire Accidents Based on GM(1,1) Model with Residual Error Correction |
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| ZHAO Ling
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TANG Min-kang.Prediction of Fire Accidents Based on GM(1,1) Model with Residual Error Correction[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2012,42(18):82-87. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Ling TANG Min-kang |
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| Institution: | (Resource and Environment Engineering School,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000, China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to master the rules of fire occurring and developing,with the characteristics of fire accidents,the GM(1,1)prediction models was established for predicting the number of fire accidents and death according to the gray theory.The number of fire accidents is volatile,so use of the residual variation,the GM(1,1)prediction model was amended,the model with residual error correction was established,the model was applied to predict the number of fire accidents,the prediction precision is grade one.The prediction results provide a scientific basis for the decision-making of fire safety management sector. |
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| Keywords: | fire accidents GM(1 1)model residual error correction prediction |
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