| 基于最小二乘法的道路交通事故预测机理模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘秀清,宇仁德,王晓原,范东凯.基于最小二乘法的道路交通事故预测机理模型[J].数学的实践与认识,2008,38(23). |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘秀清 宇仁德 王晓原 范东凯 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东理工大学,交通与车辆工程学院,山东,淄博,255049 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于相似理论提出一种新的道路交通事故预测方法,建立了新的交通事故预测非线性机理模型,作为道路交通事故预测的初步探讨.采用机动车保有量作为模型的输入变量,非线性最小二乘法求出模型参数.通过计算表明新预测模型预测精度较高,有应用价值,同时也为交通事故预测提出了新的预测理论.
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| 关 键 词： | 相似理论 交通事故预测 非线性最小二乘法 |
The Mechanism Model of Traffic Accident PredUtion Based on Least Square Method |
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| LIU Xiu-qing,YU Ren-de,WANG Xiao-yuan,FAN Dong-kai.The Mechanism Model of Traffic Accident PredUtion Based on Least Square Method[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2008,38(23). |
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| Authors: | LIU Xiu-qing YU Ren-de WANG Xiao-yuan FAN Dong-kai |
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| Institution: | School of Transpant and Vehicle Engineering;Shandong University of Technology;Zibo 255049;China |
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| Abstract: | A new traffic accident prediction method as fringe discussion was put forward based on resemble theory.The nonlinear mechanism model was developed.Motor vehicle retaining quantity is adopted as import variable,model parameter is calculated by nonlinear least square method.The result shows the new model is precise and feasible,at the same time it advances a new prediction theory of traffic accident prediction. |
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| Keywords: | resemble theory traffic accident prediction nonlinear least square method |
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