| 基于GM(1,1)的贵州省GDP预测及产业结构的灰色关联分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王美娜,杨孝斌.基于GM(1,1)的贵州省GDP预测及产业结构的灰色关联分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2021(4):180-188. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王美娜 杨孝斌 |
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| 作者单位： | 兴义民族师范学院数学科学学院;凯里学院理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 贵州省科技厅联合基金项目“人口、资源环境、经济与社会协调发展研究-以黔西南州为例”(黔科合LH字[2016]7041号)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 以贵州省2012-2018年GDP数据建立GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,用2019年GDP数据对模型预测精度进行误差检验,并对未来三年GDP的增长状况作了科学预测.运用灰色关联分析方法,通过关联度比较分析贵州省GDP与产业结构之间的关系,研究得到未来三年贵州省的GDP仍会以较快的速度增长,第二产业对贵州省GDP的影响最大,第一产业对GDP的影响最小的结论.
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| 关 键 词： | GM(1 1)模型 贵州GDP 产业结构 灰色关联分析 |
Based on GM(1,1)Forecast GDP of Guizhou Province and Grey Correlation Analysis of GDP and Industrial Structure |
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| WANG Mei-na,YANG Xiao-bin.Based on GM(1,1)Forecast GDP of Guizhou Province and Grey Correlation Analysis of GDP and Industrial Structure[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2021(4):180-188. |
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| Authors: | WANG Mei-na YANG Xiao-bin |
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| Institution: | (School of Mathematical Science,Xingyi Normal University for Nationalities,Xingyi 562400,China;School of Science,Kaili University,Kaili 556011,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the GDP data of Guizhou Province from 2012 to 2018,the GM(1,1)grey prediction model is established.The prediction accuracy of the model is tested with the GDP data of 2019,and the growth of GDP in the next three years is predicted scientifically.By using the method of grey correlation analysis,this paper analyzes the relationship between GDP and industrial structure of Guizhou Province through the correlation degree comparison,and obtains the conclusion that the GDP of Guizhou Province will continue to grow at a faster speed in the next three years,the impact of the secondary industry on the GDP of Guizhou Province is the largest,and the impact of the primary industry on GDP is the least. |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1)model GDP of Guizhou industrial structure Grey correlation analysis |
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