宏观调控“两难”新环境下中国CPI运行定量分析——基于改进的BP神经网络

当前,我国经济继续回升向好,但宏观调控面临的"两难"问题增多.如何防止经济快速下滑和防范通货膨胀成为当前宏观经济决策的重要内容,准确预见我国价格运行趋势对宏观决策具有十分重要的意义.1997年和2008年分别发生了对世界经济发展影响深远的两次金融危机.两次金融危机发生后,中国政府均实施了大规模的经济刺激计划,但反映经济运行的主要宏观经济指标CPI月度指数从危机发生当年的次年开始,步入了长达数月负区间运行.研究发现1997年金融危机发生前后月度CPI指数运行相关度非常高,2008年金融危机发生当年月度CPI指数与2007年、2009年月度CPI指数运行相关度也非常高.对此,运用改进的BP神经网络模型对1995-1999年中国月度CPI指数进行学习,以2006-2009年月度CPI指数数据为基础,对2010年中国下半年月度CPI指数进行了预测,显示全年CPI指数预计为102.85.对此,认为2010年我国面临适度的通胀压力,提出了应对政策建议.

Quantitative Analysis of CPI in China 2010 Based on Improved BP Neural Network in Macro-Control"Dilemma"New Environment

At present,China's economy continues to rebound well,but the "dilemma" problem in macroeconomic regulation and control become more and more.How to prevent and guard against inflation and rapid economic decline as an important part of the current macroeconomic, Accurate prediction of the trend of China's price run the macro decision-making is of great significance.the two financial crises occurred respectively in 1997 and 2008,impact on the world economic development.After the two financial crises,the Chinese government has implemented a large-scale economic stimulus plan,but the CPI index reflecting the macroe-conomic performance of China turned positive into the negative range in next year,facing deflationary pressure.The study found,the CPI was running a very high correlation around 1997,while around 2008,the CPI was running a very high too.In this regard,The Author use improved BP neural network model to fit the China monthly CPI index in 1995-1999,On the basis of 2006-2009 data on the CPI Index,the 2010 full-year CPI index is expected to 102.85. The Author believes that in 2010 china is indeed facing moderate inflationary pressures,it is very important to guide inflation expectations.