龚帕兹曲线参数估计方法及应用研究

在现有文献研究的基础上,对龚帕兹曲线参数估计问题又作了进一步研究,给出了求解龚帕兹曲线参数的一种新方法.将最优化方法与回归方法结合在一起,利用最优化理论中的区间搜索和一维搜索得到一系列c值,利用回归方法可求得与其相对应的一系列a和b的值,当c取最优c*时,a和b便得到最优值a*和b*.经示例计算表明,这种求解龚帕兹曲线参数的方法在电力系统负荷预测中具有较高的预测精度.

Research on Parameter Estimation Method of Compertz Curve and Application

This paper makes further research on estimating the parameters of compertz curve on based of the present document, and presents an improved method for estimating the parameters of compertz curve. This method combines best optimal method and regression method. By using area search and one dimension search of the optimal theory, we can get a series of c; and by using regression method, we can get a series of "a" and "b". When c equals the best optimal c~*, a and b become the best optimal a~* and b~*. The sampling calculation shows that the parameter estimating method is highly precise.