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油田开发指标系统的概率模拟预测
引用本文:钟仪华,徐瑶,王昱.油田开发指标系统的概率模拟预测[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(10).
作者姓名:钟仪华  徐瑶  王昱
作者单位:1. 西南石油大学理学院,四川成都,610500
2. 四川省林业干部学校数学教研室,四川成都,610066
3. 西南石油大学继续教育与网络学院,四川成都,610500
基金项目:西南石油大学自然科学基金
摘    要:基于油田开发指标系统的复杂性和其影响因素带有明显的随机特征,从理论和实用上研究了油田开发指标系统的不确定性预测方法.方法提出采用神经网络建立开发指标和影响因素的关联关系;利用微分模拟研究开发指标的影响因素的概率分布;使用蒙特卡罗方法对影响因素进行随机抽样;依据得到的关联关系和影响因素的随机样本建立油田开发指标的概率预测模型.此外,设计了概率模拟器.实例研究表明开发指标的预测值以某概率落在某个区间内,这可为决策者做出符合实际的决策和准备应急决策方案提供依据.

关 键 词:系统预测  油田开发指标  蒙特卡罗方法  神经网络  微分模拟

Probability Simulation Prediction on the System of Oilfield Development Indices
ZHONG Yi-hua,XU Yao,WANG Yu.Probability Simulation Prediction on the System of Oilfield Development Indices[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2011,41(10).
Authors:ZHONG Yi-hua  XU Yao  WANG Yu
Institution:ZHONG Yi-hua~1,XU Yao~2,WANG Yu~3 (1.School of Science,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China) (2.Teaching & Research Section of Mathematics,School Sichuan Forestry Cadre,Chengdu 610066,China) (3.School of Continuing & Online Education,China)
Abstract:The uncertainty prediction method of oilfield development index system was studied theoretically and practically in this paper based on its complexity and obviously random characteristics of its influencing factors.This method proposes that using neural network to build the incidence relation between a development index and its influencing factors, applying differential simulation to study probability distribution of influencing factors of the development index,utilizing Monte Carlo method to sample randoml...
Keywords:systems prediction  oilfield development index  Monte Carlo method  neural network  differential simulation  
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