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一种基于混合正态分布的国民经济动员资源需求估测方法
引用本文:王治彪,王伟平,胡晓东.一种基于混合正态分布的国民经济动员资源需求估测方法[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(15).
作者姓名:王治彪  王伟平  胡晓东
作者单位:1. 北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京,100081
2. 国际关系学院公共管理系,北京,100091
3. 空军指挥学院作战指挥系,北京,100097
摘    要:在决定国民经济动员的资源储备量时,利用混合正态分布密度函数,对于一定范围的地域在一个国民经济动员周期内,为应对某种危态类型所需的相关国民经济动员资源量进行估测.方法综合了两类危态应对专家的意见得到混合正态分布密度曲线,决策者据此能够以事先设定的可靠性来满足一旦危态发生时的资源需求量.最后,通过实例,说明该方法的应用.

关 键 词:国民经济动员  混合正态分布  资源  估测

An Mixed Normal Distribution-based Estimation Method on National Economy Mobilization Resources Demand
WANG Zhi-biao,WANG Wei-ping,HU Xiao-dong.An Mixed Normal Distribution-based Estimation Method on National Economy Mobilization Resources Demand[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2011,41(15).
Authors:WANG Zhi-biao  WANG Wei-ping  HU Xiao-dong
Institution:WANG Zhi-biao~1,WANG Wei-ping~2,HU Xiao-dong~3 (1.School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China) (2.Public Administration Department,University of International Relations,Beijing 100091,China) (3.Operation Commend Department of AFCC,100097,China)
Abstract:While determining the reservation of national economy mobilization resources, we estimate the demand of related national economy mobilization resources needed for corre-sponding to certain type crisis during one national economy mobilization period within certain region by making use of mixed normal distribution density function.The method integrates the opinions from two kinds of crisis corresponding experts and gets a mixed normal distribution density curve,so that decision-makers could estimate resources...
Keywords:national economy mobilization  mixed normal distribution  resources  estimation  
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