面向需求的房地产市场投机度界定及诱因辨析

基于理性范式,遵循消费者均衡条件,根据我国面临的局部经济过热背景,推定了房地产投机的实质是需求结构扭曲,而且经济周期影响需求结构的途径是收入和替代效应,据此并借助空间几何方向余弦概念具体界定了房地产市场投机度,进而求解了收入效应和替代效应催生地产泡沫的诱因变量,确定了引发投机度波动的诱因变量变动域,即:货币的边际效用降低率越小,投机度越高;收入增长对投机度影响具有不确定性;缩小包括房地产在内的商品价格的上升幅度、增加非地产投资收益率并稳定地产投资收益率可抑制房地产泡沫.

Definition on Demand-Orientated Real Estate Exchange Speculation Degree and Analysis on Inducement of Speculation

Based on rational hypothesis,following the optimal choice condition for consumer,the paper infers that the real estate speculation is essentially the distortion of demand structure,and the economic cycle causes that by income effect and substitution effect,considering the partial inflation which China faces at present.The real estate exchange speculation degree is defined concretely in virtue of the concept of the direction cosine in the spatial analytical geometry,and then the author works out the inducement variables affecting the real estate bubble caused by income and substitution effect,finds the change field of the inducement variables causing the real estate bubble.The paper concludes that the slower the income marginal utility declines,the higher the speculation degree is eventually;it is uncertain if the income increase result in speculation;it could prevent the real estate speculation to drop the inflation rate,to raising the earning rate of the investment other than the real estate,and to control the investment earning rate of the real estate.