| 火灾的周期性波动规律及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 马咏真,吴卢荣.火灾的周期性波动规律及其应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2009,39(24). |
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| 作者姓名： | 马咏真 吴卢荣 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 福建农林大学交通学院,福建,福州,350002
2. 福建农林大学计算机与信息学院,福建,福州,350002 |
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| 基金项目： | 福建省自然科学基金，福建农林大学教学改革资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析中国火灾的历年统计数据,发现中国火灾发生规律同时具有增长趋势性和周期波动性特征.借助于M ATLAB软件,根据2000-2006年中国火灾统计数据,分别建立了火灾24小时发生起数的(1)趋势灰色预测与周期波动指数相乘的组合预测模型和(2)二次曲线趋势与Fourier级数叠加的组合预测模型,两个模型(预测值与实际值)的平均相对误差都小于0.09.研究结论为消防研究、消防部门决策提供科学依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 火灾科学 发生起数 趋势性 周期性 Fourier级数 组合预测 |
Periodical Fluctuation are Found in Fire and Its Application |
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| Abstract: | Based on statistics of fire in China in the past years,the characteristics of developing trend and periodical fluctuation are found in fire regularity in China. According to the statistics of fire in China from 2000 to 2006,the combining forecasting model(1) about fire occurrence number in a 24-hour which come from trend grey forecasting multiply by periodic fluctuation index,and the combining forecasting model(2) which come from conic trend line superimpose Fourier Series are established with MATLAB,only to find the average relative error between predicted and observed value is less than 0.09.The result can provide scientific guidance for fire study and fire department as well. |
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| Keywords: | fire science occurrence number trend periodicity Fourier series combinatorial forecasting |
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