集对分析法在联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗预测方案评估优选中的应用研究

联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗预测是一个复杂的问题,影响弹药消耗的因素很多,许多因素难以在预测过程中定量地计算,具有较强的不确定性.集对分析是一种新的不确定性分析方法,其联系度概念具有鲜明的辩证性、完整性,使其成为处理不确定性问题的有效方法.因此,引入集对分析理论,建立分析模型,针对联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗多种预测方案进行评估优选.结果表明,方法简便、通用,计算结果较为客观和稳定,可为联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗预测方案评估优选提供新的有效途径.

Research on the Application of Set-pair Analysis Method in Evaluating and Optimizing of the Scheme for Predicting Army Ammunition Consumption in Joint-fire Attacks

The prediction of army ammunition consumption in joint-fire attacks is a very complicated issue,for there are a number of factors affecting the ammunition consumption,many of which have a considerable uncertainty and are hard to calculate quantitatively in the prediction process.Set-pair analysis is a new analyzing method of uncertainty,whose concept of connection degree has distinct dialectic and integrity.This characteristic makes it an effective method of dealing with problems concerning uncertainty.Therefore,the schemes for predicting army ammunition consumption in joint-fire attacks can be evaluated and optimized by introducing the theory of set-pair analysis and building the analytical model.As is showed in the result,this method is convenient and universal with objective and stable calculation results,with which a new effective way of evaluating and optimizing the scheme for predicting army ammunition consumption in joint-fire attacks will be provided.