考虑投资者心理预期的投资性商品价格运行稳定性识别与反馈控制机制设计

以投资性商品的价格运行系统为研究对象,引入反映投资者心理预期的变量,对传统的蛛网模型加以改进,并据此构建非均衡市场环境下投资性商品价格运行开环系统模型,对非均衡市场环境下投资性商品市场价格运行的稳定性进行识别,在此基础上对反馈控制机制进行设计.以我国的住宅市场的价格运行系统为实证研究对象,结合历史数据对所构模型的有效性进行验证,并对未来可能出现情况进行预测.实证研究主要结论如下:第一,我国住宅市场投资者对预期收益的敏感程度以及供应商对商品前期价格的敏感程度均较高,价格运行能自发实现稳定的区域较小;第二,现有调控政策不变的情况下,我国住宅市场价格正向偏离稳定区域的程度将减小;第三,若政府从影响投资者心理预期的角度入手对我国住宅市场价格波动进行干预,希望我国住宅市场的价格运行能以最快的速度趋于稳态,则设计反馈控制机制时,应重视投资者对商品价格未来的心理预期受商品历史价格的影响程度远高于受市场供需的影响程度这一现象.

Study on the Price Stability and the Feedback Control Mechanism of Investment Goods Considering the Psychological Expectation of Investors

This paper creates a cobweb model for investment goods based on the psychological expectation of investors,and with the combination of the state space theory in modern control theory,the price stability of the investment goods market is analyzed.Then considering the macro-control goals the feedback control mechanism is designed.The housing market of China is taken as the research case in this paper to validate the validity of the model mentioned above.The main results of the empirical study are as follows:firstly,the price fluctuation of the housing market in China is hardly to be stable spontaneously since the investor's sensitivity to expected return and the supplier's sensitivity to commodity price are high;secondly,the price fluctuation of the housing market in China will gradually approaching the stable region as long as the trend of the house property regulation and control policy remain unchanged;thirdly,the house price expectation from the investors is much easier to be affected by the historical price than the supply and demand situation of the housing market which should be seriously taken into consideration when the government decide to make policies and strategies to impel the price fluctuation of the housing market in China approaching the stable region as soon as possible.